It is possible for hospitals in the National Capital Region (NCR) will reach full capacity by mid-August if the national government does not immediately implement community quarantine restrictions.
According to OCTA Research fellow Fr Nicanor Austriaco, based on projections from Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, the health care utilization rate in Metro Manila could also reach 100% by August 15.
According to Austriaco, once the Delta surge begins, it will rapidly increase and spread.
The group urged the government to speed up implementing a “circuit-breaker lockdown” in the NCR to prevent the further spread of COVID-19 infections, which may be caused by the more contagious Delta variant.
However, the Department of Health (DOH) has announced that it is not yet at the level required by the region’s lockdown, and it still needs to be consulted with the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF).
Experts warn that the high transmission rate could overwhelm the contact tracing capacity of local governments.
They added that it is difficult to conduct contact tracing when people often move from different cities.
NCR hospitals will reach full capacity in August – OCTA
Meanwhile, OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said the government should implement a lockdown as soon as possible while the Delta variant cases have not yet experienced a surge.
He said that if the government implements an early circuit-breaker lockdown on August 1, it may take only a week or two for the government to recover and have effective control over the pandemic.
However, the late circuit-breaker he said on Aug. 16 could result in high caseloads of over 2,500 per day and could require a longer lockdown period.
The experts also warned that if the country remains in the status quo, it could record 2,000 new cases per day in the NCR by August 10 or reach 3,000 per day by August 17.
NCR will be kept in general community quarantine (GCQ) “with heightened restrictions” until Aug. 15, though some researchers and businessmen suggest putting it under tighter lockdown.
This was approved by President Rodrigo Duterte even despite OCTA’s “2-week circuit-breaker lockdown” recommendation in Metro Manila due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 infections.
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