DOH projects 500K new COVID cases in May if public ignores health protocols

The Department of Health (DOH) warned on Thursday that waning compliance with pandemic guidelines might increase active coronavirus infections to about half a million by the middle of May.

The Department of Health reported a 12-percent drop in Metro Manila’s compliance with minimum public health standards (MPHS) from March to April. According to the agency, this figure stood at 7% nationwide.

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“Analysts determined that decreases in MPHS compliance could translate to large increases in the number of active cases,” DOH said.

According to the report, a 20% drop in compliance at the national level could result in 34,788 active cases, while a 30% drop could push the number to 300,000.

According to the DOH, a 50% drop in MPHS compliance in Metro Manila may result in 25,000 to 60,000 new cases each day, pushing the total number of active cases in the region to over half a million by mid-May.

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According to the report, this is “more than three times higher than active cases during Omicron’s wave peak in January,” according to the report.

Until April 30, Metro Manila and dozens of other places are on the loosest pandemic warning level, which permits all enterprises and activities to function at full capacity on-site, with face-to-face classes subject to the approval of the President’s Office.

DOH projects 500K new COVID cases in May if public ignores health protocols

According to data from the Australian Tuberculosis Modelling Network (AuTuMN), the introduction of a novel variety that is 2 times more transmissible than omicron might result in a peak of 2,418 ICU admissions in Metro Manila as early as mid-May.

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According to the Health Department, this peak is 2.6 times greater than the 666 admissions seen in January 2022, and 8.6 times higher than the current 253 admissions.

However, if the population follows protocol and receives immunizations and booster doses, the DOH estimates that the number of active cases statewide will drop to 16,934 by mid-May, down from 26,256 on April 12.

According to the organization, lower transmission will reduce the possibility of new variations, while high vaccine coverage will guard against infection and severe sickness.

“Numbers do not lie. The good news is, at this point, these are all still projections. We can still avert these estimates in favor of better scenarios,” said DOH spokesperson and Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire.

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