The Philippines has around 3 million unreported COVID-19 cases from April to June, a study from the Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU)-Department of Economics.
Jan Frederick Cruz of ADMU-Department of Economics said in an interview on GMA Network’s Unang Hirit on Thursday that the estimated number of possible undetected infections were based on the current data on COVID-19.
“Noon pa man, meron nang agam-agam, meron nang haka-haka patungkol sa underreporting. At ang ginawa lamang natin ay magbigay ng number kung gaano ba kalala ang underreporting na ito,” he said.
“Ang pinagbasehan kasi natin dito sa computation, crude estimation lang naman siya based sa isang papel na nai-publish sa isang academic journal several months ago,” he added.
The method of estimation was based on a previous study in “Evaluating the Massive Underreporting and Undertesting of COVID-19 Cases in Multiple Global Epicenters.”
Cruz said the methodology was applied to the ASEAN-5 for his study, including the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore.
“The analysis reveals that 96%-99% of COVID-19 cases in the ASEAN-5 were undetected during April-June 2020,” said the study, which was released on Tuesday.
“Roughly three million Filipinos (2.6% of the national population) may have been infected by the virus in the same period—the worst record in the ASEAN-5 group in percentage terms,” it added.
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Around 3M COVID-19 cases in PH undetected
Cruz noted the study revealed that reported COVID-19 cases are only 1 to 2 percent of the actual number of infections.
He also said the Philippines was the worst performer among the ASEAN-5 in controlling the spread of COVID-19, adding the country has a high proportion of cases over its population.
For Cruz, mass testing would improve the country’s COVID-19 response.
“I understand na ayaw ng gobyerno na tawagin siyang mass testing at ang preferred label nila expanded targeted testing pero regardless of terminology ang importante makapag-test tayo ng maraming tao,” he said.
“Nang sa gayon, meron tayong pagkakatiwalaang datos ng impormasyon na pagbabatayan noong susunod nating gagawin,” he said.
The Ateneo professor stressed out that the imposing community quarantine and lockdown would be pointless without mass testing.
“Kung paulit-ulit tayong nagla-lockdown. Pinipilit natin ‘yung mga tao na maging tambay sa bahay nila for a very long period. But, after the lockdown, after this strict quarantine, hindi natin alam paglabas nila safe na ba sila,” he said.