The OCTA Research team said the Philippines could record up to 20,000 new COVID-19 cases daily by April if the new surge of infections would not be controlled.
A reproduction number of one or higher indicates a continuous transmission of the virus.
However, the projection could be prevented if the national and local government would continue to implement strict health protocols, localized lockdowns, and curfew hours.
“Possible ‘yan pero binase natin sa current reproduction number ng mga 1.9 so ibig sabihin kung hindi pa natin mapabagal ang pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso, ‘yan ang puwede nating maabot na numero per day ‘yan,” David said.
(It’s possible (to reach 20,000 cases per day) but it was based on our current reproduction number of 1.9. If we can’t control the surge in cases, we can reach 20,000 per day.)
“I mean, hypothetical lang naman ‘yan pero most likely hindi naman aabutin kasi at some point ay papasok na ang national government at local governments,” he added.
(I mean, it’s hypothetical, but most likely, we will not reach that point because the national government and local governments will do something about it.)
20,000 new cases daily possible by April if surge not controlled – OCTA
There were 4,899 additional COVID-19 cases this Sunday, according to Department of Health (DOH) records.
As a result, the total number of confirmed cases in the Philippines hit 621,498, of which 48, 157 are active cases or currently ill.
The DOH also recorded 13,371 new recoveries this Sunday for 560,512 total recoveries.
Meanwhile, 63 more were reported dead, bringing the total COVID-19 deaths to 12,829.
The number of new cases reported this Sunday was slightly lower compared to Saturday, where 5,000 new cases were recorded, the highest number in 2021 and in almost 7 months.
In the face of the continuing increase in COVID-19 new cases, medical experts believe that the country does not need to return to a tighter lockdown.
But health workers appealed to the public to strictly follow health protocols such as wearing a face mask and shield, following physical distancing, avoiding leaving the house, and if available get vaccinated.