COVID-19 surge on Christmas possible if NCR GCQ is eased

Researchers said the premature easing for general community quarantine or GCQ in Metro Manila could lead to another COVID-19 surge in the coming Christmas season.

The OCTA team said on its latest report that the untimely downgrade of GCQ in the national capital region could increase the risk of a spike in infections in December.

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“The national government must sustain the GCQ status in the NCR coupled with further improvements in its testing, tracing and isolation programs not just to sustain the gains of the last MECQ but to also prevent a surge, especially around Christmas time,” the report said.

Experts from the University of the Philippines, University of Santo Tomas, and Providence College made up the OCTA research team.

“We caution the national government against prematurely downgrading the quarantine status in the identified high-risk areas and most especially the NCR as this may lead to exponential growth in the number of cases and deaths apart from overwhelming our health care system,” the report said.

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The research team showed that the number of COVID-19 cases reported daily lowered from 4,300 in early August to 2,988 in late September.

The OCTA further reported that the transmission rate, number of cases, measures for hospital resource utilization, and positivity rate are also on a downward trend in Metro Manila.

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COVID-19 surge on Christmas possible if NCR GCQ is eased

“But this positive trend is not irreversible, and significant efforts have to be undertaken by all stakeholders to sustain it,” the experts said.

“While the situation in the NCR has improved as the rate of transmission, the number of cases, as well as the positivity rate and the measure for hospital resource utilization are all on a downward trend, it has not yet achieved the crucial 28 days case doubling time requirement set by IATF to be classified into an MGCQ status,” they added.

“Therefore, we recommend sustaining the current General Community Quarantine (GCQ) status for the NCR until it further improves its health indicators and qualifies for the MGCQ status,” the team said.

The number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may increase to a minimum of 380,000 to a maximum of 410,000 by end-October, the UP OCTA team projected.

“The current trajectory (as of September 25) shows between 310,000 and
315,000 cases by September 30. It is likely we will reach the lower range of the previous projections, a very positive sign that we are headed in the right direction,” it said.