The Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of Mindanao entered the PAR at 2:00 PM today. At 4:00 PM today, the LPA was estimated at 955 km East of Visayas.
It is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward towards Eastern Visayas and may likely reach the area tomorrow afternoon. This weather disturbance may develop into Tropical Depression Tonyo within the next 36 hours. The trough of the LPA will bring scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mindanao, Eastern and Central Visayas, and Bicol Region.
Meanwhile, Severe Tropical Storm Siony continues to move west-northwestward over the Bashi Channel South of Taiwan.
At 4:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “SIONY” was estimated based on all available data at 145 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes.
On the forecast track, “SIONY” is forecast to move west-northwestward and pass over the sea off the southern coast of Taiwan within 12 hours. “SIONY” is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. Afterwards, it will turn southwestward tomorrow morning over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan and move over the West Philippine Sea.
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“SIONY” is forecast to maintain its strength in the next 12 hours, then it will significantly weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions associated with a surge of the northeasterlies over the West Philippine Sea. It may be downgraded to a Low Pressure Area (LPA) on Sunday afternoon.
Today, “SIONY” will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 8.0 m) will prevail over the coastal waters of Batanes while areas under gale warning will be experiencing rough to very rough seas (3.0 to 4.5 m). The complete list of seaboards where gale warning in effect is detailed in Gale Warning #48 issued at 5:00 PM today.