Metro Manila is likely to be at moderate risk for COVID-19 by next week, according to OCTA Research, an independent monitoring group.
“At this time nasa low risk pa tayo sa Metro Manila, green pa siya. Pero by next week, we are projecting nasa moderate risk na tayo, yellow,” OCTA fellow Guido David said in an interview on Laging Handa.
(And this time, we are still at low risk in Metro Manila, it is still green. But by next week, we are projecting that we are at moderate risk, yellow.)
“So kumbaga, ‘yung current situation natin hindi pa naman siya nangangahulugan magtataas tayo ng alert level pero this is a possibility within the next few weeks,” he added
(So, it seems our current situation does not mean that we will raise the alert level, but this is a possibility within the next few weeks.)
A low-risk location has an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of less than one per 100,000 people, whereas a moderate-risk area has an ADAR of one to seven.
According to the OCTA fellow, the number of new COVID-19 cases in the region could reach 400 to 500 by the end of June.
Metro Manila new COVID-19 cases may reach 500 by end-June – OCTA
On Monday, the region had 188 COVID-19 cases, according to David.
“So medyo bumibilis ‘yung pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso kasi dati nasa mga 65 cases lang tayo per day tapos baka umabot na siya ng mga 400 to 500 by end of June so bumibilis na talaga ‘yung bilang ng kaso,” he said.
(So the increase in the number of cases is accelerating because we used only to have about 65 cases per day, and then maybe it will reach 400 to 500 by the end of June, so the number of COVID-19 cases is really accelerating.)
Meanwhile, he said that the region’s reproduction number of persons infected by a single case had risen to 1.59.
A reproduction number less than one implies that the virus’s spread is slowing.
According to David, the positive rate was 2.7 percent.
According to David, the government may have to reduce passenger capacity on public transit or indoor enterprises “at the minimum.”
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