Fourteen of the 17 local government units (LGUs) in Metro Manila recorded negative growth rates in COVID-19 cases in the past week, according to the OCTA Research Group.
According to Dr. Guido David, OCTA fellow, this does not mean that the trend of cases is down, but it can be considered a good indicator.
“The green trend line actually show a decrease. In fact, the number of cases on average right now for the past 7 days is 4,200. It’s about 11 percent lower compared to the previous week when we were averaging more than 5,000. Two weeks ago, it was about 5,200 on average. That was about the peak,” said David.
There has also been a slight decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) over the past two weeks.
Based on ABS-CBN Data Analytics, the average case was 4,600 in the past 14 days.
“It’s still high, but at least we’re seeing a decrease. But if we compare across NCR cities, it can also get tricky because these cities are really interconnected. But I guess, I can point out two factors. One is the impact of the localized lockdowns and then the testing and tracing that are being done.”
NCR COVID-19 cases ‘somewhat dropped’ but hospitals are still full
“Second, for me, it’s really the timing. If we remember, cases started to increase first in Pasay so they were able to introduce interventions earlier and that’s why we’re seeing a decrease now,” said Edson Guido, head of ABS-CBN Data Analytics.
The reproduction number or number of infections per person with COVID-19 also decreased.
From April 16 to 22, the reproduction rate is at 0.98 or less 1 person. But it can still rise.
“It’s not a stable trend yet. It’s just over the past week we’re seeing this reproduction number of around 1,” said David of OCTA.
So for OCTA, the government should aggressively lower the reproduction number, and keep it at less than 1 for a few weeks.
“Because you have a 27-day confinement period for COVID-19 survivors. So if one patient goes in, if they survive, they will be in that bed for about one month. So you have to sustain the [reproduction number] below 1 for at least several weeks. And this will take careful planning with the length of the MECQ,” said Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, another OCTA fellow.